Weekly Macro Report, September 6 2026

S&P 500 is up 12.6% year-to-date through Sep. 3, 2026, signaling solid momentum. The Fed funds effective rate stood at 3.63% on Sep. 3, 2026, a level that points to restrained but still positive policy support for growth; US GDP growth and the futures-implied path are unavailable here.

The labor market held up in August 2026: payrolls rose 162,000, the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, and June-July payrolls were revised up by 55,000. Initial claims were 206,000 for the week ended August 29, reinforcing a still-tight backdrop; this argues for the Fed to stay cautious, with rates likely held higher for longer rather than cut quickly.

As of Sep. 3–5, 2026, the 10-year Treasury sat near 4.77%–4.79%, while the 30-year Treasury held around 5.24%, keeping government borrowing costs elevated. Corporate bond data were not available, but the 30-year mortgage average jumped to 6.71% on Sep. 3 from 6.66% a week earlier, and rates near 6.8% on Sep. 4–5 keep affordability tight for homebuyers, lift funding costs for businesses, and support bond yields for investors.

As of September 4–6, 2026, the bond market still prices modest growth, with the Treasury curve only mildly inverted at the front end and longer yields near 4.8%-5.3%. The 10-year TIPS real yield around 2.45% on September 3 points to firm real-rate expectations, while credit spreads remain tight enough to suggest steady investor risk appetite.

As of July 2026, U.S. headline CPI was 3.4% y/y and core CPI 2.5%, with shelter still the main monthly driver and energy the offset. The latest PPI data are unavailable here; the 10-year breakeven rate was 2.35% on Sep. 4, 2026, implying inflation expectations remain contained versus U.S. CPI.

M2 rose to $23.16T in June 2026, up from $23.06T in May, with broad money growth still positive and driven mainly by deposit accumulation rather than a sharp credit surge. CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI was 2.5%; liquidity is growing faster than prices but not enough to look clearly expansionary, so conditions are neutral to mildly inflationary.

The University of Michigan’s August 2026 survey showed Current Sentiment at 51.9 and Expectations at 51.5, leaving a -0.4 spread on 29 Aug 2026. The U.S. yield curve on 3 Sep 2026 was flat to slightly inverted, with 3M at 4.32%, 10Y at 4.18%, and a -0.14 pp 3m10y spread, signaling cautious near-term growth and rate expectations.

July data show existing-home sales fell 1.7% to a 4.06 million annual rate, while the median sale price rose 2.0% to $434,100 and inventory held at 4.6 months’ supply. Mortgage rates were 6.71% on Sept. 3, keeping affordability strained. The mix of firmer prices, tight supply, and elevated borrowing costs points to a market still tilted toward sellers, but with demand capped by payment pressure.

As of Sep 4–5, 2026, Technology led the 11 sector ETFs, with XLK up 0.53%–0.70% on the week, while Consumer Discretionary lagged at -1.96% to -2.15% and Communication Services also stayed weak. Energy remains the dominant YTD leader, driven by XLE’s 43%+ gain and oil-linked strength, while XLK’s AI/semiconductor leadership and XLF’s rate/cycle sensitivity are keeping rotation selective.

As of early September 2026, US valuations remain stretched: the S&P 500 PE is about 27.6–27.9, Shiller PE is 40.6–41.4, and the Buffett Indicator is roughly 242%, all near extreme historical levels. Relative to global peers, the US still commands a premium, driven by mega-cap tech dominance, higher margin profiles, and concentrated earnings growth, while most non-US markets trade at lower multiples and wider discount-to-fair-value readings.

As of Sep. 4, 2026, VIX was 14.53, up 1.47% on the day after closing at 14.32 on Sep. 3; on Sep. 1 it briefly spiked to 16.34 before retracing. That pattern, with VIX back near the mid-14s, suggests a market that is still risk-tolerant and orderly rather than defensive.

US equities remained a leader, with the S&P 500 up 13.55% YTD through Sep. 4, 2026, while Japan extended the strongest major-market run, as the Nikkei 225 gained 25.44% YTD. Germany lagged the global rebound more clearly, with the DAX up only 12.75% YTD by Sep. 4, 2026, signaling a rotation toward U.S. and Japan rather than broad European leadership.

Gold rose 2.08% on Sept. 4 after softer ADP payrolls and dovish Fed commentary cut September hike odds, pulling the dollar and 10-year yield lower. Brent gained about 1% on Sept. 2 as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes raised Strait of Hormuz supply-risk premiums; both moves reflect a sharper mix of rate-cut hopes and geopolitical risk.

Bitcoin traded around $81,240 on Sep. 4, 2026, after opening at $81,271.92, while Ethereum was near $2,522, with both rebounding sharply from Sep. 2–3 weakness. Bitcoin still leads the market at roughly 59% dominance, and total crypto value sits near $2.69 trillion, signaling a market still concentrated in BTC despite ETH’s stronger short-term bounce. Institutional ETF inflows, altcoin rotation, and macro risk around mid-September policy decisions remain the main drivers.

Week to 4 Sep 2026, the USD stayed firm versus the EUR at 1.1622 and JPY at 156.0, while GBP held near 1.353, keeping import costs elevated and limiting room for policy cuts. The CNY was steadier near 6.71, while CAD, AUD, CHF, and NZD moved around 1.60, 0.72, 0.81, and 0.59 per USD, signaling mixed trade and capital-flow pressure; inflation remains sticky where commodity FX is weak.

As of Q1 2026, U.S. federal debt was 122.6% of GDP, versus the euro area near 87% and Japan about 235%; household debt was 68.5% in Q2 2025. Corporate debt-to-GDP was unavailable. The key risk is rising interest expense: CBO projects net interest at $1.0T in 2026, or 3.3% of GDP, pressuring fiscal room and raising duration risk for investors.

In the month ahead, September 11 CPI and September 16 FOMC will drive rate expectations; a hotter CPI could keep the Fed cautious and push Treasury yields higher. September 4 payrolls and September 29 JOLTS will show whether labor demand is still firm; stronger data would support higher-for-longer policy, while a softer read could keep cut bets alive. September 30 GDP will round out the picture on growth momentum.