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The Business Cycle

Economic Growth & Output

US GDP Yearly Growth

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Chart showing the yearly growth rate of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), highlighting economic expansions and recessions.

Loans & Leases Yearly Growth

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Chart showing the yearly growth rate of loans and leases, indicating credit availability and economic activity.

Labor Market Indicators

Nonfarm Payrolls Yearly Growth

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Chart showing the yearly growth rate of nonfarm payrolls, a key indicator of employment and labor market health.

US Unemployment Rate

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Chart showing the US unemployment rate, indicating labor market conditions and economic health.

Initial Unemployment Claims

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Chart showing initial unemployment claims, a leading indicator of labor market distress and potential recessions.

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

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Chart showing the Sahm Rule recession indicator, which signals a recession when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its low point.

Confidence & Leading Indicators

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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Chart showing the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with both the Current Economic Conditions and Consumer Expectations components plotted together as a measure of consumer confidence and spending intentions.

Consumer Sentiment Expectations Minus Current Conditions

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Chart showing the spread between the University of Michigan Consumer Expectations and Current Conditions components — a leading recession signal: when expectations fall below current conditions, a downturn is often imminent.

Composite Leading Indicator

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Chart showing the OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the United States (FRED series USALOLITOAASTSAM), a tool for forecasting changes in the direction of the economy.

Financial Markets

S&P 500 Yearly Growth

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Chart showing the yearly growth rate of the S&P 500 index, reflecting stock market performance and economic health.

MSCI USA Market Cap Weight vs Equal Weight Ratio

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Chart showing the ratio of market capitalization-weighted MSCI USA index to equal-weighted, indicating market concentration and leadership.

MSCI Cyclical vs Defensive Sectors Ratio

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Chart showing the ratio of cyclical sectors to defensive sectors in the MSCI USA index, reflecting economic sensitivity.

Inflation & Commodities

Gold Price Yearly Growth

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Chart showing the yearly growth rate of gold prices, indicating inflation expectations and safe-haven demand.

Crude Oil Yearly Growth

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Chart showing the yearly growth rate of crude oil prices, reflecting energy costs and supply-demand dynamics.

Producer Price Index Yearly Growth

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Chart showing the yearly growth rate of the Producer Price Index (PPI), measuring inflation at the producer level.

Copper to Gold Ratio

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Chart showing the ratio of copper prices to gold prices, a potential indicator of economic growth and industrial demand.

Interest Rates & Monetary Policy

Fed Funds Rate

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Chart showing the Federal Funds Rate, the interest rate at which depository institutions lend funds maintained at the Federal Reserve.

Yield Curve Spread between 10-Year and 1-Year Yield

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Chart showing the spread between 10-year and 1-year Treasury yields, a key indicator of the yield curve slope and recession risk.

Real 1-Year Interest Rate

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Chart showing the real 1-year interest rate, calculated as the nominal rate minus inflation, indicating the true cost of borrowing.

Government Total Public Debt to GDP Ratio

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Chart showing the ratio of total public debt to GDP, indicating the government's debt burden relative to economic output.

M2 Money Supply Yearly Growth

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Chart showing the yearly growth rate of M2 money supply, a measure of the total amount of money in circulation including cash and easily convertible near money.

Interpretation

The business cycle, also known as the economic cycle, refers to the fluctuations in economic activity that an economy experiences over time. It typically consists of four main phases: expansion, peak, contraction (or recession), and trough. The cycle can be measured and reflected in various economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment data, consumer confidence, leading indicators, stock market performance, interest rates, commodity prices, and sector performance. These indicators can be visualized in charts that reflect the cyclical patterns of rising and falling economic activity.
The causes of economic cycles are complex, involving factors such as fluctuations in aggregate demand (consumer spending, business investment, government spending), monetary influences (interest rates, credit availability), and external shocks (technological changes, natural disasters, political events). Psychological factors like confidence and speculation, as well as structural shifts (demographic changes, industry transformations) and supply-side elements (productivity, resource availability), also play a role.

Further Information

Data Sources

LongtermTrends

The Antidote to Financial Hype.

Charts

S&P 500 PE Ratio Buffett Indicator Stocks vs. Gold & Silver Stocks vs. Bonds The 60/40 Portfolio Cyclical vs. Defensive Growth vs. Value Large vs. Small Cap Nasdaq vs. S&P 500 US vs. World Emerging vs. Developed US Stock Sectors Fama & French Factor Investing Thematic Investing MSCI Countries

 

S&P 500 Dividend Yield Cap vs. Equal Weight US Yield Curve Credit Spreads Bitcoin vs. Gold Dow to Gold Ratio Gold to Silver Ratio Copper to Gold Ratio Gold to Oil Ratio Gold vs. Real Yields Mining vs. Gold Commodity Futures Stocks to Commodities Global Inflation Breaking Down Inflation Worldwide GDP

 

The Business Cycle US Debt to GDP M2 vs. Inflation Real Interest Rate Home Price to Income The Real Home Price Stocks vs. Real Estate Real Estate to Gold Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq Bitcoin vs. M2 Ethereum vs. Bitcoin Foreign Exchange Developed Markets Emerging Markets Frontier Markets

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LongtermTrends

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S&P 500 PE Ratio Buffett Indicator Stocks vs. Gold & Silver Stocks vs. Bonds The 60/40 Portfolio Cyclical vs. Defensive Growth vs. Value Large vs. Small Cap Nasdaq vs. S&P 500 US vs. World Emerging vs. Developed US Stock Sectors Fama & French Factor Investing Thematic Investing MSCI Countries S&P 500 Dividend Yield Cap vs. Equal Weight US Yield Curve Credit Spreads Bitcoin vs. Gold Dow to Gold Ratio Gold to Silver Ratio Copper to Gold Ratio Gold to Oil Ratio Gold vs. Real Yields Mining vs. Gold Commodity Futures Stocks to Commodities Global Inflation Breaking Down Inflation Worldwide GDP The Business Cycle US Debt to GDP M2 vs. Inflation Real Interest Rate Home Price to Income The Real Home Price Stocks vs. Real Estate Real Estate to Gold Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq Bitcoin vs. M2 Ethereum vs. Bitcoin Foreign Exchange Developed Markets Emerging Markets Frontier Markets

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Weekly Macro Report The Macro Compass Investment Co-Pilot FIRE Agent

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