Real Estate to Gold Ratio

Interpretation

The real estate to gold ratio measures the amount of gold it takes to buy a typical single-family house. Based on the pioneering research of Robert J. Shiller and Karl E. Case, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is generally considered the leading measure of US residential real estate prices. To create a comparable dollar value for this ratio, the index is multiplied by a constant of 1800. This multiplier was chosen to historically align the index's output with metrics like the Average Sales Price of Houses Sold.
The ratio has an interesting historical track record for identifying turning points in long-term gold price trends. When exactly is one of the assets "cheap" and what is "expensive"? Answering that question is where the Gold/Housing ratio is quite useful. As there is no dollar component in the ratio itself, inflation concerns drop out, and we are left with the value of two of the most popular tangible investments relative to each other.

Data Sources

• Recent data
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index
  • Yahoo Finance: COMEX Gold Price
• Historical data
  • Online Data Robert Shiller: Home Prices
  • OnlyGold: Gold prices

Further Information

• Mike Maloney on YouTube: Silver & Gold vs. Real Estate
• BIS: Interest rates and house prices in the United States and around the world

Interpretation

The chart above displays the 1-year rolling correlation coefficient between the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the price of gold. A correlation coefficient of +1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, meaning that home prices and gold moved in the same direction during the specified time window. Conversely, a correlation coefficient of -1 indicates that they moved in opposite directions. There are periods during which the price of gold did not change, which results in a standard deviation of zero and a correlation of plus or minus infinity. These periods are removed from the data set and appear as gaps in the rolling correlation series.
Diversification is the practice of spreading investments across different assets to reduce risk. In his book Principles, Ray Dalio called diversification the "Holy Grail of Investing". He realized that with fifteen to twenty uncorrelated return streams, he could dramatically reduce the risks without reducing the expected returns.