M2 Money Supply Growth vs. Inflation

Interpretation

The "M2 Money Supply", also referred to as "M2 Money Stock", is a measure for the amount of currency in circulation. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as "less liquid money", such as saving bank accounts. The chart above plots the yearly M2 Growth Rate and the Inflation Rate, which is defined as the yearly change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). When inflation is high, prices for goods and services rise and thus the purchasing power per unit of currency decreases.
Historically, M2 has grown along with the economy (see in the chart below). However, it has also grown along with Federal Debt to GDP during wars and recessions. In most recent history, M2 growth surpassed 10 percent in the crisis of 2001 and 2009, during which an expansionary monetary policy was deployed by the central bank, including large scale asset purchases.
According to Bannister and Forward (2002, page 28), Money supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked.

Data Sources

• M2 Money Stock
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: M2 Money Stock (Weekly) since 1980
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: M2 Money Stock (Monthly) from 1959 until 1980
  • United States Census Bureau: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 (M2 Money Stock until 1959, Chapter X, pages 992-993). Following Bannister and Forward (page 28), M2 prior to 1959 is calculated by adding "Currency held by the public" + "Deposits adjusted, commercial banks" + "Bank vault cash" + "Monetary gold stock" + "Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions"
• Inflation
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: CPI since 1913
  • Robert Shiller Online Data: CPI from 1871 until 1913
• US Gross Domestic Product
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: US Gross Domestic Product
  • Congressional Budget Office: Historical Gross Domestic Product

Further Information

• Investopedia: What is M2?
• Investopedia: What is Inflation?
• Youtube: Milton Friedman Speaks: Money and Inflation